Porpentina Goldstein Fantastic Beasts - Cardboard Cutout

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• Author: Philomena Ontiveros
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• Author: Olive Markham
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• Author: Gidget Eichel
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• Author: Brodie Didomenico
  A short range Iskander ballistic missile would be the likely delivery mode if Russia wanted to use
  a tactical nuclear weapon against Ukraine, military
  experts say
  
  
  The United States would almost certainly discover ahead of time
  if Russia was preparing a nuclear strike on Ukraine, and Moscow might very well want it known, nuclear
  weapons experts say.
  
  Russian President Vladimir Putin has raised the possibility of using nuclear weapons if
  Russia's "territorial integrity" or existence is threatened.
  
  
  Moscow's declaration Friday that it was annexing four partly-occupied regions of Ukraine potentially meant
  Russia could consider responding to attacks on the claimed territory
  with a nuclear strike.
  
  Should such an escalation materialize, it would probably be
  in the form of a smaller tactical nuclear weapon, likely launched on a
  short-range Iskander ballistic missile, according to experts.
  
  
  While military analysts downplay Moscow's threats for now and US officials say
  they have seen no activity indicating such plans, Western defense and intelligence are closely watching
  to see if real atomic threats emerge.
  
  - Where are the bombs?
  
  -
  
  Preparations for an attack would be evident, Pavel Podvig, a
  senior researcher at the UN Institute for Disarmament Research in Geneva,
  told AFP.
  
  
  
  
  
  
  Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that Russia could use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine if it feels its existence or territorial integrity is threatened
  
  
  A 2017 report by the institute maps out 47 nuclear storage sites across Russia -- 12 national-level facilities and 35
  base facilities.
  
  These are monitored constantly by intelligence and military surveillance satellites of the United States and other countries.
  
  
  They can even be watched closely by commercial satellites, as
  shown by the widespread, regularly updated imagery of activities at North Korean nuclear
  facilities.
  
  Podvig says Russia has deployed its strategic or
  long-range nuclear warheads in the field, on missiles, bombers and submarines.
  
  
  But its non-strategic or tactical nuclear weapons, which number as many
  as 2,000, are stored and not installed on delivery vehicles
  like the Iskander, according to Podvig.
  
  "There are no Iskanders roaming around with nuclear-armed warheads. These weapons are in storage,"
  he said.
  
  - How would we know?
  
  -
  
  "I'm confident the United States would see any Russian preparations for using nuclear weapons," said Mark Cancian, a former official
  in the US defense and energy departments who worked on nuclear
  weapons issues.
  
  "The weapons need to come out of storage, the units involved need to be alerted, and the Russians might also alert their strategic nuclear forces," Cancian, now at the Center for Strategic and International
  Studies in Washington, told AFP.
  
  He said evidence would also come from likely visible preparations for Russia's
  ground forces, issuing them protective equipment and instructions on how to act in a nuclear environment.
  
  
  "All of this would be visible," he noted.
  
  Podvig said Moscow, like Washington, has for decades embraced the
  need for disciplined management of its nuclear warheads, and that system is fairly strong
  and visible.
  
  "We can be quite certain that there are no hidden facilities," he said.
  
  
  "Nuclear weapons need a certain structure, people who are trained, and the maintenance. You cannot do that in a random place."
  
  "Technically you could probably smuggle a couple of bombs out of a storage sight undetected," he
  said.
  
  But doing so has risks, including provoking a preemptive attack from the
  West.
  
  "The Russians will never be certain that it is undetected. That would be a gamble," said Podvig.
  
  
  
  Moreover, he added, it is more likely that Russia would want the West to
  see its preparations as a warning.
  
  "It would be the kind of escalatory step (and) Russia would want that to be visible," Podvig said.
  
  
  - Warning the world -
  
  The United States warned for weeks before the February 24 invasion that Russia intended to attack Ukraine,
  seeking to prepare Kyiv and allies -- and possibly deter Moscow from acting.
  
  
  Would Washington warn the world openly if it detected Russia planning a nuclear assault?
  
  
  Doing so could spark unprecedented panic, not only in Ukraine but other areas that
  could be affected by radioactive fallout.
  
  Such alarm could go global if people expected
  an escalation to transcontinental nuclear war.
  
  The United States would almost certainly warn allies
  and other powers, including crucially China and India, hoping they would pressure Moscow to pull back or face international isolation.
  
  But Washington would likely see issuing public warnings as useful in adding to pressure on Russia, according to Podvig.
  
  
  "The strategy has to be based on isolation. The unacceptability of this has to be reinforced, that it is criminal," he said.
  
  
  "That message might have deterrence value."
  
  
  
  
  
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